WILLIAMS & JENSEN, PLLC
Presidential
The Associated Press (AP) has projected Vice President Biden to be the next President of the United States. Based on races called by the AP, Vice President Biden has 290 electoral votes, while President Trump has 214.
The AP has called Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Nevada, and Arizona for Vice President Biden.
The Trump campaign has announced it will request a recount in Wisconsin. Under Wisconsin state law, the campaign would have to fund the recount, as the margin is greater than 0.25%. The Trump campaign has filed legal challenges in several states and could file more in the coming days. Vice President Biden currently holds a narrow lead in Georgia. Georgia officials have indicated that the state will likely go to a recount.
Below is the current status of the uncalled races:
Georgia (16 EV) – Vice President Biden leads 49.5%-49.3% with 99% reporting.
North Carolina (15 EV) – President Trump leads 50.1%-48.7% with 99% reporting.
Alaska (3 EV) – President Trump leads 62.2%-33.6% with 58% reporting.
President Trump has 214 electoral votes, having won: Kentucky, West Virginia, South Carolina, Alabama, Mississippi, Arkansas, Indiana, Nebraska, Nebraska CD-1, Nebraska CD-3, Louisiana, Wyoming, South Dakota, North Dakota, Kansas, Missouri, Idaho, Oklahoma, Utah, Tennessee, Montana, Iowa, Texas, Florida, and Maine CD-2.
Vice President Biden has 290 electoral votes, having won: Vermont, Virginia, Illinois, Delaware, Connecticut, New Mexico, New York, New Jersey, Washington DC, Colorado, New Hampshire, California, Washington, Maryland, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, Oregon, Hawaii, Minnesota, Nebraska CD-2, Arizona, Maine, Maine CD-1, Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Nevada.
Senate
Control of the Senate has yet to be fully determined. Democrats have flipped seats in Arizona and Colorado, while Republicans regained Alabama.
There is still a range of possibilities for the exact margin in the Senate, with Republicans currently holding 48 seats and Democrats holding 48 seats.
- While the race has not been called, Senator Thom Tillis (R) is ahead in North Carolina and has declared victory. Tillis leads 48.7%-47.0% with 98% reporting. A Tillis victory would bring the Republicans to 49 seats.
- Senator Dan Sullivan (R) currently holds a 62.4%-32.1% lead in Alaska with 58% reporting and is expected to win. A Sullivan victory would bring the Republicans to 50 seats.
- Senator David Perdue (R) and Jon Ossoff (D) have advanced to a runoff in Georgia, which will be held on January 5. If Perdue is victorious, it would bring the Republicans to 51 seats.
- Senator Kelly Loeffler (R) and Raphael Warnock (D) have advanced to a runoff in the Georgia Senate special election, which will be held on January 5. A Loeffler victory would bring the Republicans to 52 seats.
The most likely Senate outcome will be 50 to 48, with two Georgia races proceeding to runoffs on January 5. If the Republicans win either or both Georgia runoff elections, they will maintain a majority in the Senate. If the Democrats were to win both Georgia runoffs there would be a 50-50 split in the Senate, which would result in the Democrats gaining the majority with Vice President Elect Harris serving as the tiebreaking vote.
Below are the races which have already been called by the AP.
Democrat Pickups
John Hickenlooper (D) defeated Senator Cory Gardner (R) in the Colorado Senate race.
Mark Kelly (D) has defeated Senator Martha McSally (R) in the Arizona Senate race.
Republican Pickups
Tommy Tuberville (R) has defeated Senator Doug Jones (D) in the Alabama Senate race.
Democrat Retentions
Senator Gary Peters (D) defeated John James (R) in the Michigan Senate race.
Republican Retentions
Senator John Cornyn (R) has won reelection in the Texas Senate race, defeated MJ Hegar (D).
Senator Lindsey Graham (R) has won reelection in South Carolina’s Senate race, defeating Jaime Harrison (D).
Roger Marshall (R) has won the Kansas Senate race, defeating Barbara Bollier (D).
Senator Joni Ernst (R) has won reelection in Iowa’s Senate race, defeating Theresa Greenfield (D).
Senator Steve Daines (R) won the Montana Senate race, defeating Steve Bullock (D).
Senator Susan Collins (R) won the Maine Senate race, defeating Sara Gideon (D).
Runoffs
Senator David Perdue (R) and Jon Ossoff (D) have advanced to a runoff in Georgia, which will be held on January 5.
Senator Kelly Loeffler (R) and Raphael Warnock (D) will advance to a runoff in the Georgia Senate special election, which will be held on January 5.
House
Democrats are projected to retain their majority in the House but will hold a smaller margin. As of 1pm on Monday, 215 House races have been called for Democrats and 196 have been called for Republicans. Thus far, Democrats have flipped three seats and Republicans have flipped seven, giving them a net gain of four. Two of the seats picked up by Democrats were an expected result of redistricting in North Carolina.
Of note, more than a dozen Republican women are projected to join the House in the 117th
Congress.
A successful election cycle cements the belief that there will not be changes amongst House Republican leadership, with House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-CA), House Minority Whip Steve Scalise (R-LA), and House Republican Conference Chair Liz Cheney (R-WY) expected to remain in those roles.
While a number of House contests are still yet-to-be-called, it is important to bear in mind that many of these same districts saw the 2018 winner declared after Election Day — weeks later in some cases. That process could take even longer in 2020, with significantly larger number of mail and absentee ballots this year due to the pandemic. There will be local variations, but a number of the states implicated here are observing mail and absentee votes for Democrats at rates that exceed historic trends. Democrats have previously announced that their Caucus Leadership elections will be held on November 18 and 19, though it is possible those elections could be delayed if a significant number of these races remain outstanding.
Democratic Pickups
Carolyn Bourdeaux (D) defeated Rich McCormick (R) in Georgia’s 7th District.
Deborah Ross (D) defeated Alan Swain (R) in North Carolina’s 2nd District.
Kathy Manning (D) defeated Lee Haywood (R) in North Carolina’s 6th District.
Republican Pickups
Carlos Gimenez (R) defeated Representative Debbie Mucarsel-Powell (D) to flip Florida’s 26th District.
Maria Elvira Salazar (R) defeated Representative Donna Shalala (D) to flip Florida’s 27th District.
Ashley Hinson (R) defeated Abby Finkenauer (D) to flip Iowa’s 1st District.
Michelle Fischbach (R) defeated Representative Collin Peterson (D) to flip Minnesota’s 7th District.
Yvette Herrell (R) defeated Representative Xochitl Torres Small to flip New Mexico’s 2nd District.
Stephanie Bice (R) has defeated Representative Kendra Horn (D) flipping Oklahoma’s 5th District.
Nancy Mace (R) defeated Representative Joe Cunningham (D) to flip South Carolina’s 1st District.
By Williams & Jensen PLCC: https://williamsandjensen.com/